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Thinking in Bets

Thinking in Bets

Date read: 2021-01-18
How strongly I recommend it: 8.21/10
(See my list of books, for more.)

Go to the Amazon book for details and reviews.

Thinking in Bets

Poker and decision making

“A hand of poker takes about two minutes. Over the course of that hand, I could be involved in up to twenty decisions. And each hand ends with a concrete result: I win money or I lose money. The result of each hand provides immediate feedback on how your decisions are faring. But it’s a tricky kind of feedback because winning and losing are only loose signals of decision quality. You can win lucky hands and lose unlucky ones. Consequently, it’s hard to leverage all that feedback for learning.”

Efficient irrationalities

“As with many of our irrationalities, how we form beliefs was shaped by the evolutionary push toward efficiency rather than accuracy

Learning and observing

“An experienced player will choose to play only about 20% of the hands they are dealt, forfeiting the other 80% of the hands before even getting past the first round of betting. That means about 80% of the time is spent just watching other people play

“When any of us makes decisions in life away from the poker table, we always have something at risk: money, time, health, happiness, etc. When it’s someone else’s decision, we don’t have to pay to learn. They do. There’s a lot of free information out there.”

Betting against future versions of ourselves

“In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather, we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing”

Learning and experience

“Experience is not what happens to a man; it is what a man does with what happens to him.”

The 2 key factors of life

“there are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck.”

Decsions as bets

“By treating decisions as bets, poker players explicitly recognize that they are deciding on alternative futures, each with benefits and risks. They also recognize there are no simple answers. Some things are unknown or unknowable

Betting improves information examination

“Being asked if we are willing to bet money on it makes it much more likely that we will examine our information in a less biased way”

“We can train ourselves to view the world through the lens of “Wanna bet?”

* Maybe I should ask myself "Want to bet?" in all important decision

Change a habit

“To change a habit, you must keep the old cue, and deliver the old reward, but insert a new routine.”